04 Feb BFPG’s January 2026 Review

2026 has got off to a whirlwhind start, with President Trump shaking up the international order once again with the capture of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, his threats over Greenland (and the major rupture with Europe that has since caused), and escalating tensions with Iran. Over the last month, President Trump has ripped up the global rulebook and thrown into question some of the norms and values, not least the commitment to sovereignty, that have long held the global order together. 

And the world is frantically working out how to respond. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney caught the attention of foreign policy watchers around the world with his speech that declared the world order was in a rupture and that middle powers must band together or risk being “on the menu” for great powers. Much of the West seemed to agree, but the question is whether the so-called ‘middle powers’ will be ready to respond when the next global crisis, whether caused by Trump or not, erupts.

The Prime Minister rounded off the month with a trip to China, the first visit by a UK Prime Minister in 8 years. While he hasn’t walked away with any major trophies to talk about, he’ll be hoping his trip will help towards a bigger prize, strengthening relations with the world’s second-largest economy at a moment of major geopolitical turbulence. Whether that bears fruit or not, and is worth the security risks, remains to be seen.

BFPG Analysis

President Trump’s attack on Venezuela has thrown the global rules, norms and values that had become increasingly contested in recent years further into disarray. But how much do Trump’s actions matter? And what does it mean for the world order? Read here

Following Keir Starmer’s address to the nation on Greenland, Senior Researcher Jack Pannell analyses what we learned from the speech, both for how the government approaches global crises and its broader approach to geopolitics. Read here

Press Coverage

With foreign policy dominating the news over the last month, BFPG has been busy out and about providing the latest analysis of events as they evolve for outlets inlcuding Channel 5 News, LBC and Politico, to name few. Highlights include:

– On BBC’s The Media Show, BFPG Director Evie Aspinall explored the importance of the BBC World Service to UK soft power, as well as its role promoting truth, democracy, accountability and human rights.

– In Politico, BFPG reflected on Reform’s lobbying of President Trump on the Chagos deal, his motivations and how it may impact the relationship between Starmer and Trump.

– On Sky News, BFPG Director Evie Aspinall was in the studio providing live updates on Starmer’s visit to China as it happened.

Introducing… Jack Pannell

BFPG is delighted to announce the appointment of our new Senior Researcher Jack Pannell. Jack joins BFPG from the Institute for Government where he worked as a Researcher. Prior to this, he worked at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs in Washington D.C. We are delighted to welcome him to the team and hope you will get the chance to meet him at our events in due course.