05 Jul The 2024 General Election: What it Means for UK Foreign Policy
The world is watching on as the UK welcomes a new government, and its first Labour government for 14 years. But what does the election result mean for UK foreign policy? And how will it impact our partners and allies?
1. ‘Progressive Realism’ will be at the centre of UK foreign policy
Ahead of the election David Lammy, who we assume at this stage is about to become Foreign Secretary, laid out his ambitions for UK foreign policy in a series of essays. At their heart is an ambition for the UK to be led by so-called ‘progressive realism’. This mantra is led by the belief that, in a world of growing geopolitical competition, the UK must adopt a realist approach to foreign policy, recognising that states will always act in self-interested ways as they vie for position and power in the changing world order. This does not, in Lammy’s view at least, preclude incorporating values into foreign policymaking, but rather necessitates that the UK recognises the reality of nations’ motivations, and utilises it to pursue progressive ends. In practice, that means working with partners who don’t always agree with the UK but with whom cooperation might help secure progress on wider global ambitions. It means playing into nations’ self interest to get them to adopt their own progressive agendas, and it means accepting the reality of the UK’s changed role on the world stage, while seeking to make the most of our existing diplomatic weight.
2. Britain will be ‘reconnected’ with the world
Labour’s other foreign policy slogan is that of ‘Reconnected Britain’, designed to replace the Conservatives’ ‘Global Britain’ agenda. The purpose of both slogans is clear – to redefine the UK’s position in the world. But the shift in language is telling. Where ‘Global Britain’ sought to conjure up an image of a plucky post-Brexit Britain defining its own path in the world, ‘Reconnected Britain’ follows the trend of the UK’s Integrated Review Refresh, and places the emphasis back on the role of partnerships and alliances in defining the UK’s role in the world. This includes pursuing partnerships with a broad range of nations, strengthening relations with Europe, and rebalancing relationships with developing nations, shifting onto a more equal and reciprocal footing. It also means a renewed commitment and focus on supporting international institutions. Underpinning this is a belief that the UK must rebuild its credibility as a trustworthy, generous and reliable international partner – be that in development, security or trade – and that the new government must work hard to rebuild trust with its allies.
3. The UK will re-enter the European fold
Labour has made clear its ambitions to be a ‘leading nation in Europe once again’, and there can be little doubt that one of Labour’s foremost priorities will be to reconnect with Europe. The key cornerstone of this will be security, in light of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. Labour is firmly committed to developing a broad-ranging UK-EU security pact, covering everything from defence and economics to cyber and climate, in a push to strengthen both UK and European security. Trade is also seen to be an important element of this reorientation back to Europe, and while Labour has no plans to rejoin the EU single market or customs union, it is committed to reducing trade barriers, engaging in regular UK-EU structured dialogues, and substantially renegotiating the 2021 Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), to find areas for greater collaboration and coordination with the EU.
This comes at a critical time for Europe. The rise of the far right in the European Parliamentary elections, as well as in a number of national elections in the continent, has left Europe looking increasingly fractured politically. This, combined with the growing possibility of a second Trump Presidency in the United States, which would likely see the US pull further away from European security, leaves a major leadership void in Europe. From outside of the EU, it will be almost impossible for the UK to fill that void, not least given that the politics of a growing number of European leaders varies so substantially from Starmer’s own. Nevertheless, a proactive and Europe-focused UK will no doubt be welcomed by many of our European partners, eager to find friends and support wherever they can in these challenging and divided times. No doubt Labour will look to use the European Political Community Summit, being hosted in the UK in just two weeks, as an opportunity to provide some of that much needed reassurance.
4. National security will remain the top foreign policy priority
In such a contested global environment it is perhaps unsurprising that Labour will look to remain firmly focused on national security. But this focus will be particularly important for Labour who will be eager, from the outset, to prove its commitment to the UK’s defence and security. Labour, whose reputation (rightly or wrongly) is that of a party less strong than the Conservatives on defence, has a point to prove, not least given the stream of defence-focused attack ads launched by the Conservatives during the election campaign.
Labour’s planned national security review and China audits will, no doubt, be seen as an opportunity to cement Labour’s commitment to, and vision for, national security early on, with both reviews expected within the first year of the new government. A key focus will be on strengthening European security and on solving the ongoing challenges facing the UK military, as well as shoring up supply chain resilience as part of Labour’s ‘securonomics’ agenda. The reviews will also inevitably throw up some difficult questions about the timelines for fulfilling Labour’s pledge to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
5. The Rwanda policy will be scrapped but the migration question won’t go away
Labour has been very vocally critical of the Conservatives’ Rwanda scheme, which it views as ineffective and expensive. In its place, Labour has planned a new Border Security Command which will employ many more investigators, intelligence officers and cross-border police officers. Labour has also committed to a new returns and enforcement unit, and to utilising a new security pact with the EU to strengthen joint investigations with European counterparts.
And while illegal migration is no easy task to tackle, Labour will quickly come under significant pressure to do so. Britons view illegal migration as a top priority and are already deeply frustrated by the delays to the previous government’s Rwanda policy. With small boat crossings also usually rising substantially over the summer and Reform UK securing a number of seats in parliament, Labour will be pushed hard from the start to take a tough stance on illegal migration.
6. The UK will reposition itself as a climate leader
Back in 2021, when the UK hosted both the G7 and the COP26 Presidencies, climate leadership was seen as a key cornerstone of the UK’s role in the world. Fast forward to 2024 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, soaring energy bills and a cost-of-living crisis have led to u-turns from both the Conservatives and Labour in their ambitions for UK climate leadership. Nevertheless, while Labour’s climate ambitions may have been scaled back, it is clear that climate leadership will still be a key priority in the new government’s positioning of the UK’s role in the world. This includes commitments to decarbonise the UK’s electricity sector by 2030, produce a New Energy Independence Act, and establish a publicly owned energy company – Great British Energy. The most notable commitment at an international level, though, will be Labour’s pledge to lead a ‘Clean Power Alliance’, bringing together allies and partners who are leading the way on climate action. With the looming prospect of a Trump presidency in the US hanging over the upcoming COP29 summit and raising concerns over the US withdrawing its commitment to climate action once again, the UK under Labour will no doubt strive to provide some much needed international leadership in the climate space.
7. The UK-US relationship could prove challenging but will endure
While the result of the UK general election is now settled, the election on the other side of the Atlantic is still up for grabs. From the perspective of the new government, a win for Biden (or whichever Democrat replaces him should he step down) would be particularly beneficial. Labour and the Democrats are sister parties, David Lammy has very strong links with former President Obama, and there are remarkable similarities between the two parties’ approaches to global affairs, particularly between ‘Bidenomics’ and ‘securonomics’.
However, it is just as likely, if not more, that former President Trump wins the US election. Not only have a number of incoming UK Cabinet Ministers made some less than complimentary remarks about Trump in the past, but Trump’s scepticism around NATO, climate leadership and multilateral institutions will certainly prove challenging for the new government. So too will his very hawkish approach to China and his economic isolationism. The new UK government is acutely aware of this challenge, and has already gone to great lengths to try and build relationships with President Trump and senior Republican counterparts. But while they appear to be making some inroads, the fundamental differences in their views of the world means a Trump-Starmer US-UK relationship will undoubtedly be fraught. Of course, the US-UK relationship has endured many difficult relationships over the years, and no doubt will continue to do so, as much out of necessity in the current global environment as anything else. Nonetheless, it certainly won’t be a comfortable relationship all (or even most) of the time.
8. Regional focus will shift away from the Indo-Pacific
While Labour has been eager to assert in recent months that it will build on the Conservatives’ commitment to the Indo-Pacific, it is difficult to see how this will be sustained in practice. Labour has made clear that Europe is its first and foremost regional priority, and with war raging on the European continent, the security resources available to strengthen security alliances with the Indo-Pacific will be limited. On trade too, any greater alignment on standards with Europe runs the risk of divergence from standards elsewhere, including the Indo-Pacific, which may throw up some difficult decisions for a government trying to manage multiple priorities.
Labour has also made clear that when looking for non-European partners, Africa will be a top priority, with Labour pledging in its manifesto a ‘new approach to the continent to foster opportunities for mutual long-term benefit’. This will no doubt involve a reinvigoration of the UK’s current approach to international development, not least because Labour wants to reorientate the aid budget to ensure it is reaching the nations most in need. It will also involve a focus on increased reciprocal trade and knowledge exchange, in an effort to ensure the UK’s relationship with Africa is grounded more deeply in mutual respect.
This focus on Europe and Africa does not mean that the UK will withdraw from the Indo-Pacific, nor from any of the major commitments it has made to the region in recent years – namely the AUKUS deal, accession to the CPTPP, and dialogue partner status with ASEAN – but it is unlikely that, as Labour looks to forge a new path for the UK in the world, that the Indo-Pacific will retain its spot at the top of the foreign policy agenda.
9. Internal fighting can be expected over the Middle East
Israel and Palestine has long been a challenging subject for Labour. And while the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has featured much less prominently in the election debate than many had expected, now that Labour is in government it must confront the sharp divides that remain within the party over how best to approach the conflict. While in opposition, Labour’s approach has largely been to align with the government and with the US’ approach, only becoming more critical of Israel in recent months as the conflict has dragged on, and civilian casualties have mounted. However, when in government, many within the party membership, including some incoming MPs, will be eager for Labour to make a more vocally pro-Palestine approach, as concerns grow about the growing humanitarian crisis. Such a shift may push the UK out of kilter with some of its key allies, not least the US, signalling a potential early and provocative policy diversion from the next US administration. No matter the approach Labour takes though, Labour will face challenges maintaining party unity on the issue, especially when having such a large majority will make it difficult for Labour to enforce party discipline.
10. Elsewhere there will be a lot of continuity
There is a tendency when analysing the impact of a change in government to emphasise all of the points of difference. But the reality is, in the UK at least, a lot of foreign policy has fairly bipartisan support. The methods and the degrees of focus vary, but in an environment when so much policy is inflicted upon the UK by the external environment, it is often the case that parties find themselves converging in their views on a lot of foreign policy. On China, for example, while the exact framing of the UK’s response will change from ‘protect, align and engage’, to ‘compete, challenge and cooperate’, the fundamental principles of engaging where it makes sense to, and protecting ourselves where not, still remain. On defence too, there will be greater focus on Europe than on the Indo-Pacific, but that’s a trend we were already seeing. And, for now at least, there is little to suggest there will be any substantive move away from the merger of the Foreign Office and Department for International Development, or to accelerate the pace at which the UK returns to spending 0.7% GNI on international development.
As such, while the new government’s approach to foreign policy will certainly vary from the last, not least around Europe and international partnerships, the story of this new government is as much about stability as it is about change. In a turbulent geopolitical environment, that may well be welcomed by many of our international partners.
