07 Sep We have a new Prime Minister – and the world said….?
As Liz Truss enters Downing Street, those with international business or other interests will be asking how she will be received around the world, and what difference it could make. That the Russian Government for one has already made its views clear enough will be no surprise to anyone. But what will others think?
As a diplomat I witnessed several changes of Prime Minister both in the UK and abroad. I’ve paid careful attention to how the UK is received after a change and I’ve reported back home on changes in countries where I’ve worked. There are a few simple principles to bear in mind.
The first is that, while a leader’s domestic profile impacts international perceptions, the view close up and the view from a distance are very different. In the case of, say, Margaret Thatcher or Gordon Brown, their international reputations remained strong long after their domestic popularity waned. More recently, Boris Johnson would still be Prime Minister if the decision were made in Kyiv.
Secondly, at the beginning of their term, a leader is known a lot better at home than abroad, though in the case of Liz Truss the pollsters tell us that she is not yet that well known even to the British public. While London-based diplomats will have been sending back their reports, most readers won’t focus too closely until the new Prime Minister actually takes office. They may know a bit more than usual, as the new PM has already been Foreign Secretary and International Trade Secretary, but even so many still only have a vague idea. The detail that matters at home – for example, a Prime Minister’s policy on tax rates – will not necessarily be what matters abroad. It’s important for diplomats, and businesspeople, to look at the new leader’s profile through what matters to their audience.
Third, no one understands raw politics better than politicians. They know the pressures of domestic politics: as Jean-Claude Juncker once said “we all know what to do, but we don’t know how to get re-elected once we have done it.” This might be a comfort to any who are concerned that Liz Truss’s remarks about Emmanuel Macron on the campaign trail might cause lasting damage. They probably won’t, even if they are remembered for a while. At the same time, however much politicians understand each other’s pressures and can be forgiving, they have their own domestic politics too, so we too should also not overreact to the occasional harsh word. Most importantly, a Government will view the arrival of a new foreign leader through the perspective of its own interests and, in most cases, will be open to opportunities to improve the relationship in order to pursue them better.
The politicians’ trade means that they are particularly alert to the strengths or weaknesses of their peers. A leader who is doing well in a country that is doing well will earn respect, whether or not they are particularly likeable. In his heyday, Tony Blair’s three election victories made for the strongest imaginable calling card. On the other hand, look as though you’re about to lose at home and no one abroad will be much interested in you.
We should bear in mind that even (or especially) in the age of instant news and instant messaging, governments – and others – can struggle to make sense of the multiple sources of information they are receiving about what’s going on abroad. It’s easy to draw the wrong conclusions. I remember having to explain to a very experienced contact in the Former Yugoslavia that a stray remark by an pretty unknown US senator didn’t necessarily reflect agreed NATO policy. More recently, I recall an Indian colleague who told me he couldn’t believe the outcome of the Brexit referendum “because the FT had said it wouldn’t happen”. The reader of several leading British newspapers might well reach the conclusion that our new Prime Minister isn’t up to the job. It’s of course too early to predict what might happen over the next couple of years, but it isn’t too early to ensure that you read – and report- a wide enough range of sources to stand a chance of balance. Remember too that, as the intelligence community always emphasises, sources can intend to influence as well as inform.
Finally, as we breathlessly take in the latest news about our new Prime Minister, her policies and government, we should remember that other governments will take their time to draw conclusions. Where Liz Truss is undoubtedly right is that what counts is delivery: she, like her predecessors and successors, will ultimately be judged on what she does.
