21 Sep The Truss Administration – What Can We Expect On…Security

With a new monarch and a new Prime Minister within just a few days of each other, the UK has undergone a significant period of change over the last few weeks, changes that will affect how we are perceived and how we will act both at home and abroad. In a series of blogs released over the coming days, we will look at the prospects for foreign policy under the new British Government and what ‘Global Britain’ could look like under new Prime Minister Liz Truss. As the first blog of the series, this piece will consider the big strategic and security questions under the Truss administration.

People

It’s sometimes said that in politics there’s too much discussion of personality and too little of policy. However, in the case of Liz Truss’s Government and national security, a look at the top appointments provides valuable – if unsurprising – insight on the direction of policy.

With the war in Ukraine only heightening, the Ministry of Defence is the department which sees the greatest continuity in Truss’ new administration. It is little surprise that Ben Wallace, Defence Secretary for the last two years and at one time Conservative Party members’ favourite to be the next Prime Minister, is one of the few senior Ministers remaining in the same post. Wallace has been credited with foresight over Russian intentions towards Ukraine and his reappointment signifies no change on a robust UK response. Meanwhile, James Heappey is continuing in the Department in the enhanced role of Minister for the Armed Forces and Veterans with the important additional distinction of attending Cabinet. He has added to his portfolio responsibility for veterans’ affairs, previously held by Johnny Mercer and much to the latter’s very public dismay.

Another high-profile appointment in the national security space is that of Tom Tugendhat, former Chair of the Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, as Security Minister in the Home Office, also with the distinction of attending Cabinet. An Army reservist, Tugendhat secured considerable support among MPs in the earlier stages of the Conservative leadership and with his first Ministerial position has further consolidated his position as one of the most influential figures in the security debate. During the leadership campaign, like Prime Minister Truss he committed to an increase in defence spending as a percentage of GDP. It will be interesting to see whether his hitherto independent thinking on defence and foreign affairs, including his role in establishing the China-sceptic China Research Group, surfaces from his new position in Government. 

At official level, another highly significant appointment is that of Sir Tim Barrow as National Security Adviser, succeeding Sir Stephen Lovegrove. Barrow was previously Second Permanent Secretary at FCDO and the new Prime Minister’s most trusted official adviser when she was Foreign Secretary. In a wide diplomatic career, he has served as Ambassador both to Ukraine and Russia as well as to the EU, with his extensive experience reflecting the UK’s – and Liz Truss’ – current top priorities. Sir Stephen Lovegrove remains in a central national security position as the Prime Minister’s Defence Industrial Adviser. Given the Government’s stated intention to increase defence spending and equip the military for its wide range of challenges, and amid the more immediate impact of supplying material to Ukraine, Lovegrove will be central to how ambitious policy goals are realised in practice.

Policy

While the debate on “Trussism” has some way to run, her belief in the central importance of political and economic freedom translates into a need for the liberal democracies of the world to unite against autocratic regimes and breaches of international law, with the UK stepping up to take a leadership role. Activist foreign policy, supported by enhanced defence, will be prominent in the Truss administration. Throughout her Parliamentary career, she has voted for the use of UK military forces in combat operations overseas, including supporting airstrikes in Syria and Iraq, and continued deployment of troops within Afghanistan. She has been vocal about her desire for NATO allies to step up, viewing the 2% of GDP spending on defence as a minimum, and regarding the UK’s proactive political and defence support for Ukraine, she will put her weight behind a strengthened Western alliance. 

At the practical level, attention must now turn to translating the broad policy direction into concrete action and investment. Some of the key pledges made in the Integrated Review and the Defence Command paper to overhaul and modernise the UK’s defensive capabilities are likely to be reviewed, with Truss indicating that she is willing to reconsider plans to cut the size of the regular army to from 82,000 to 72,500 personnel by 2025 in a direct response to the Ukraine crisis. Nonetheless, the broader mission to modernise the UK’s defence infrastructure will continue, with Ben Wallace announcing plans for a review of the balance between the UK’s ships and submarines earlier this month.