12 Jun Rishi Sunak’s Visit to Washington: Ten Things To Note
If it weren’t for some rather more headline-worthy domestic political developments, the weekend’s newspaper columns would likely have been filled with commentary on Prime Minister Sunak’s visit to Washington. Did he come back with ‘wins’ or empty-handed? Were there any gaffes (on either side)? Is the ‘special relationship’ intact? To make a balanced assessment, it’s worth starting with some general points about Prime Ministerial visits to the United States before moving on to the specific initiatives announced last week.
1. Washington Visit Anxiety isn’t just a British phenomenon
Every time a Prime Minister visits Washington, there’s the same anxiety – do we still matter to the US and, if so, is the relationship hopelessly one-sided in America’s favour? Usually, an expert (often a former British Ambassador to Washington) will remind us that counting the number of references to the ‘special relationship’ isn’t the point. Indeed, as BFPG’s latest foreign policy public opinion survey (to be published soon) confirms, the ‘special relationship’ remains a top bilateral relationship priority for British citizens.
On this measure, the Prime Minister seems to have done well, as President Biden explicitly used the phrase early on, commenting that the special relationship was in “real good shape”. The former Ambassadors are of course right that substance and interests are more important than style and niceties, though the latter are good to have too.
It’s worth stepping back. In our breathless anticipation of the golden phrase, we forget that most countries large and small suffer from ‘Washington visit angst’. Even when a leader has made a shtick out of criticising the US, when it’s his/her turn to travel to DC, the same questions are asked: does America still care about us? What deals will we come home with? Our obsession with the ‘special relationship’ is arguably British exceptionalism, a dated sense that we ought to matter to the US more than anyone else and so have more to lose if the cherished reference isn’t there. We’d suffer less angst if we kept things in proportion: the US is still a superpower and (with one or two notable exceptions) everyone else is looking for favours in Washington too.
As I’ll argue later, Rishi Sunak did pretty well on this trip. But almost certainly officials in Washington are even now working on another gushing declaration or two to be issued in the next few weeks when other world leaders visit President Biden. That shouldn’t be a reason for angst in London, but rather reassurance that the US is continuing to engage in the world – the opposite would be far more worrying.
2. Big Visits are political theatre, but they do matter
If your usual focus is the bottom line, you might wonder whether Prime Ministerial visits are anything more than performative – do they deliver anything beyond a fleeting headline? The answer is that they certainly can, both politically and practically. First, bilateral visits are the bread and butter of diplomacy – or rather perhaps the oil that smooths the wheels not just of foreign policy but trade and other areas of domestic policy too. It goes without saying that a fairly regular PM visit to the US President is necessary if not sufficient as an indicator of the health of the relationship. If the two sides couldn’t find time in the diary for each other, we’d know that there was something seriously wrong in a relationship that really does still matter to both.
More positively, the prospect of a visit galvanises both sides to reach agreements that can be announced during a visit to give it substance, and it may also help catalyse government support for commercial deals between the two countries which otherwise might drift. For long-term initiatives, the prospect of having to report on progress at the next summit can be important in keeping Government departments as well as other stakeholders focused on delivery of the commitments made. So yes, when well prepared and followed up, summits can definitely be worth the effort. Given the chance, business should always engage.
3. Personalities matter too, but so does the bigger picture
The personality dynamics of US Presidents and British Prime Ministers have always made an interesting subject for discussion, rarely more so than in recent years. Anyone who’s worked on preparing summits knows that programmes which reflect the personal styles, interests, tastes and (for example) regional origins of leaders can make a difference on the day, not just because we’re all human and like to be treated well, but because experiencing the personal touch enables a leader to show to the voters back home that they are being shown respect abroad. On this occasion, Rishi Sunak seems to have been able to turn his familiarity with the US – which has not always been an advantage to him domestically – to his advantage, appearing very much at home in Washington.
But personalities, even big ones, only take you so far. However flowery the declarations, a nation’s foreign policy is interests – the country’s and of course often the leader’s and his/her party’s too. As this visit well demonstrated, British and American interests remain if by no means identical, at least very highly aligned, supported as ever by deep and practical networks, most obviously in defence, intelligence and international strategy, from nuclear deterrence and intelligence sharing to close coordination in the UN Security Council. Personalities make for the headlines (and the bear-traps) but in this relationship the substance really is … substantial.
4. You can’t ignore the domestic politics
It goes without saying that where you sit politically determines how you’ll interpret the outcome. Government supporters will tell you the visit was a great success which positioned the UK as a leader and demonstrated US support for British initiatives. Labour will tell you that the Prime Minister achieved too little. Critics of Brexit will point out that the trade benefits of what was agreed in Washington don’t compensate for Britain’s exit from the Single Market. You choose.
More interesting are the dynamics of a British Conservative Prime Minister under pressure from the right of his party up against a US Democrat President under pressure from his left. When the French President and Prime Minister are from different parties, the resulting “cohabitation” is always a recipe for tension. The Windsor Framework has taken much of the grit out of the top-level relationship, but differences remain. Not only are the industrial subsidies in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act not affordable in the UK, they go against the Conservative’s more free market preferences and are much more an inspiration for Labour’s emerging economic and climate change policies. With little choice, Sunak seems to have made the best he could of a policy approach he wouldn’t have chosen to see. Despite some ideological differences, these are two leaders who can work together.
The elephant in the Oval Office is that both leaders face election campaigns in the coming year and (to put it mildly) neither is guaranteed re-election. Unsurprisingly (and correctly in terms of diplomatic protocol), Sunak did not find time to meet with Donald Trump or other potential Republican Presidential candidates and will doubtless avoid expressing a view as the US election comes closer. There are reports that Keir Starmer’s team are working on a visit to Washington in the coming months. On past form, the Leader of the Opposition will get an invitation to meet senior White House officials, probably including the Vice-President. The President will “drop in” and stay for longer than scheduled, so protocol and honour on all sides will be satisfied. What really matters is the substance, on which we can predict now: to Biden, Starmer would be a perfectly acceptable British leader and one with whom, in some areas at least, he’d be more comfortable than with the Conservatives. Obvious, but given Labour’s recent history, a significant achievement.
5. Defence is again making the relationship ‘special’
It’s a truism that defence and intelligence cooperation is at the heart of whatever makes the UK/US relationship ‘special’. It’s easy to point to the moments in recent history when the two countries have been inseparable, from Thatcher and Reagan on the Cold War to George W Bush and Blair on Iraq. But there have also been significant differences, from Grenada to differences with Donald Trump on climate change. It’s worth noting that today – from support to Ukraine to China and AUKUS – the UK and the US really are singing from the same hymnsheet and arguably closer than other – still important – European allies. There is of course a clear link here too to reinforcing defence technology and industrial cooperation, where the UK and US can both gain.
There’s an interesting reference in the declaration to cooperation on Export Controls with the UK undertaking to conduct a review of export controls, with a focus on “end users of concern”. With the US intent on tightening controls on the export of technology to China, with this reference the UK is demonstrating readiness to remain closely tied to US approaches, particularly on military technologies. One can imagine that the US will be raising this language in its discussions with the EU and other allies.
6. Security and prosperity are back together – for good or ill?
Beyond the immediate deliverables, the Atlantic Declaration is a highly significant document that confirms that once again security and prosperity are inextricably bound up together in US (and therefore British and Western) policy. Having lived through decades in which the post-Cold War export control regimes were relaxed, we are now seeing that the age in which confidence in security enabled unfettered globalisation is well and truly over. With COVID and the Russian invasion of Ukraine showing that supply chains are no longer assured, both governments and businesses need to operate differently. Add to the mixture climate change and decarbonisation, this document offers if not all the answers, a coherent set of challenges and an action plan.
The real picture is more mixed: security – whether from human enemies or today increasingly climate change – can also be a convenient cover for protectionism and increased State control of the terms of trade. Whether you are supportive of this turn or not, it clearly injects more politics – and therefore more volatility – into business calculations.
7. A Trade Agreement was never on the cards, but there are benefits for the UK
It’s fair enough to point out that the UK Government has not secured a bilateral Trade Agreement with the US as Brexiteers promised during the referendum campaign. But it’s pointless to complain that Rishi Sunak didn’t bring one back from Washington last week. President Biden was never going to offer one and, even if he had, he would have been in no position to deliver it during the current Administration’s term. Indeed, though fully-fledged trade agreements remain the signature ‘notch on the bedpost’ for trade policy, they are hard to negotiate (see our ongoing negotiations with India as an example) and not the only way to make progress on trade liberalisation.
Against this backdrop, the announcements on critical minerals – of crucial importance for the automotive industry – and cooperation (for example) in tech, biotech and space at least carve out some benefits for the UK in an increasingly protectionist US policy environment. The devil will be in the detail: protectionist policies are there for a reason, so we should not expect massive liberalisation. But there are also valuable commitments – which will take some time to be realised – to enable mutual recognition of qualifications for engineers and accountants.
8. There are opportunities for business across the UK
It’s not just the UK defence industry that stands to benefit from increased cooperation brought about in part by necessity, in part by Biden’s offer of some concessions from an increasingly protectionist industrial policy. Most of the areas highlighted in the Declaration are in the technology or manufacturing sectors, including clean tech (including civil nuclear), which means that some should benefit regions beyond London and the South East. As a sign of things to come, it’s interesting to see a specific reference to space, where the UK space sector, though small compared with the US, is playing a significant role in innovation. The commitment in principle to establish a Data Bridge between the two countries – essentially extending the US-EU arrangement to the UK – is an important step for multiple sectors with the potential to reduce costs, speed up processes and create new business opportunities.
9. There are some Brexit benefits, even if they don’t make for big headlines
A number of the announcements coming out of Sunak’s visit would not have been possible without the flexibility which Brexit gives UK policymakers. The agreements to work together to strengthen both sanctions and export control policy reflect the UK Government’s readiness to use Brexit freedoms assertively in these areas. Although the UK could have held a conference on AI safety without Brexit (who knows, President Macron might announce a similar initiative before long), in an area which Sunak has identified as a priority, the UK would be in a position to announce domestic measures with greater agility without the need to reach agreement at 27, with at least the potential to influence slower-moving EU legislation.
10. Overall, quite a good visit
Although he doubtless has other headaches this week, Rishi Sunak can be quietly satisfied with his visit to Washington. Gaffes, ultimately trivial but nonetheless irritating, were avoided. Even in the Conservative- and Brexit-sceptic media, commentary on the visit was quite measured, suggesting that there was little negative to pick up on. And, if media reports are correct, President Biden may make a substantial visit to the UK in July to keep the momentum going (and increase the pressure on more announcements, and deliverables). For now, the headlines have quickly moved on, but fortunately there’s still life beyond the headlines.
