27 Jul ULEZ, By-Elections and the Future of the UK’s Climate Leadership

In the wake of last week’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, the fate and cost of the UK’s ‘green policies’ have been thrust to the top of the political agenda, leaving the future of the UK’s net-zero transition hanging in the balance. 

Labour Mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s policy to expand London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to outer London boroughs has been widely blamed for Labour’s failure to win the constituency at the recent by-election, despite having a substantial lead in the national polls. In response, both the Conservatives and Labour appear to be tempering their enthusiasm for ‘green policies’. Policies such as the 2030 petrol and diesel car ban, the hydrogen levy, and plans to raise the minimum requirements for energy efficiency for privately rented homes to reach the C standard, have all fallen into the spotlight in recent days, as policies that could be first in the firing line. But what do the British public really think about the UK’s climate policies and what would it mean for the UK’s wider foreign policy agenda? 

Public Perceptions

When considering the results of BFPG’s recent annual survey of UK public opinion on foreign policy, it is clear that, contrary to the conclusions being made following the Uxbridge by-election, the UK’s focus on tackling climate change is widely endorsed. We found that 70% of Britons support the UK taking a leading international role in tackling climate change, while just 9% of Britons oppose it. In fact, a majority of Britons in every polled demographic group – gender, age, geographical region, socio-economic grade, party voting preference and Brexit vote – support the UK taking a leading international role in tackling climate change.

Indeed, contrary to widely-held beliefs, the energy and cost-of-living crises have not especially displaced Britons’ concerns about climate change, with support for the UK assuming a leading role in tackling climate change rising up from 66%, in 2022, to 70% in 2023. Indeed, support for climate leadership may actually have been strengthened by the energy crisis, which has highlighted the challenges posed by overreliance on fossil fuels, and the need for Britain to position itself as a domestic powerhouse for alternative energy sources.

Furthermore, despite high levels of concern about China (74% of Britons distrust the nation) and deep-rooted hesitancy about cooperation with a strategic rival, climate change is one of the few areas in which a sizable proportion of Britons (38%) are willing to put aside their wider geopolitical views in support of cooperation. This makes cooperation on shared global challenges such as climate change the second-most-popular form of engagement, the first being challenging China on human rights abuses. 

So while the Uxbridge by-election tells us something about local views on ULEZ, and even perhaps about willingness to personally front costs in pursuit of green policies, it does not show us the whole picture of wider perceptions of climate action. By-elections are always steeped in local politics, with Britons not voting to endorse any particular national manifesto nor a potential Prime Minister, but often voting for what makes sense locally. When it comes to a general election, a wider range of issues start to matter. The potential tempering of enthusiasm on net-zero pledges therefore runs the risk of misalignment with public opinion, and in fact may work against parties at the next general election.

Climate Leadership

Beyond public opinion, scaling back the UK’s climate ambitions will also have implications for the UK’s reputation on the global stage. In recent years, the UK has sought to position itself as a leader of the green agenda. The UK shouldered the responsibility of COP26, led the way in target-setting in favour of net-zero, and pledged to spend £1.5 billion on climate adaptation measures by 2025. Through a duopoly of genuine climate commitment and moral imperative, the UK’s leadership has fostered credibility in the international system, paving the way for UK, and environmental, self-interest in the diplomatic sphere.

Nevertheless, the UK’s international reputation on climate will inevitably depend on policy decisions taken at home. Already, the UK has backtracked on its very public commitments around phasing down coal usage made at recent COP summits. Efforts to boost domestic hydrocarbon output have included granting approval for the first new coal mine in over 30 years, beginning a process to award over 100 oil and gas extraction licences in the North Sea, and agreeing to prolong the lifespan of the Ratcliffe coal power station. Rolling back on further domestic pledges to tackle climate change and advance the net-zero agenda will only further undermine the UK’s credibility on climate change. To be an international leader in carving out an equitable and sustainable future on an international scale, national values must align with the UK’s global messaging. 

Furthermore, with many developing nations increasingly vocal about the disparity in Western rhetoric on phasing out fossil fuels and tangible policy action and financial commitment, further disillusionment is dangerous for the UK’s international ambitions. UK ambitions to forge sustainable partnerships with emerging economies and non-traditional partners – goals which ring clear in the 2023 Integrated Review Refresh – are particularly at risk. Moreover, ambitions to utilise an authentic UK reputation for green ambition and excellence, to edge out strategic rivals in emerging trade routes, or in standard-setting organisations, will be undercut if the UK cannot display credible leadership within the climate space. As the geopolitical centre of gravity shifts, the UK must avoid isolating existing and potential allies across Asia, Africa and Latin America, by failure to lead on climate change.

The UK must therefore tread carefully when navigating the balance between local issues and national agendas when it comes to green policies. The ULEZ expansion policy laid bare the potential voter backlash to more direct costs of green policies. But, when considering the delay or repeal of green policies and commitments, it is crucial for policymakers to recognise the inevitable tinge of local politics reflected in the by-election result. When looking more broadly, policymakers must recognise that climate leadership remains widely endorsed by the majority of Britons and that, beyond local politics, the UK’s global reputation on climate change is at stake.