25 Jun The Election Debate on…the United States

While in the UK our attention is firmly focused on the upcoming general election, very soon our attention will turn to an election happening all the way over on the other side of the Atlantic. With President Biden and President Trump neck and neck in the polls as they compete for a second term as US President, the next few months could see major changes in both the US and the UK and, in turn, in the UK-US relationship.

With a wide variety of election outcomes possible on either side of the Atlantic, it is hard to predict what the US-UK relationship might look like by the end of the year. Undoubtedly the smoothest relationship would emerge if both Labour and the Democrats won their respective elections. The similarities between a number of Starmer’s and Biden’s policies are striking – not least in Labour’s focus on ‘securonomics’ which reflects its own version of ‘Bidenomics’, and not just in its name. Both policies promote a bigger role for the government in running the free market economy and encourage greater cooperation with like-minded international allies, particularly in market areas which could pose national security risks. On the international stage, there is no doubt the two parties would find much in common in their vision and ambition for the West’s role in global affairs.

Perhaps even more important than their broad policy alignment though is Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s longstanding friendship with President Barack Obama. While Obama is clearly no longer in the White House, and it is not guaranteed (but seems likely) that Lammy will become Foreign Secretary, their friendship has no doubt strengthened ties between Labour and the Democrats. With Lammy making frequent trips to the United States to compare notes with Democrats, the two parties have a strong and growing relationship which could provide the basis for a very collaborative US-UK relationship on the world stage.

And even if Labour doesn’t win in the UK, but the Democrats do in the United States, we can expect a relatively stable US-UK relationship between Biden and Sunak. While US-UK relations were no doubt strained by Brexit, they have improved in recent years, not least with the signing of the Windsor Framework, which was warmly welcomed by the United States, for whom peace and stability in Northern Ireland is seen as critically important. The signing of the AUKUS agreement has also provided an opportunity for security cooperation, while the Atlantic Declaration has helped strengthen economic relations. And while not quite as ideologically aligned as Labour and the Democrats, there is little to suggest therefore that a Conservative-Democrat relationship would be anything other than collaborative and effective, as it has been over the last few years.

The real challenge will come though if President Trump wins in the United States. While it is difficult to predict exactly what a Trump presidency might look like, not least because he’s an incredibly unpredictable character, it’s clear that his vision for the world, and the US’ role in it, varies very substantively from that of either the Conservatives or Labour. Challenging the rise of China is firmly Trump’s number one foreign policy priority, with the possibility of another US-China trade war looming. Trump officials have also made clear that they expect Western allies to ‘fall in line’ and support the United States in its efforts to curb China’s growing influence. With the EU historically more doveish than the US on China, the UK may find itself caught between two of its biggest allies and partners and struggling to navigate an increasingly fraught US-China relationship.

This challenge will no doubt be compounded too by Trump’s views on Ukraine. With his eyes firmly on China, and increasingly frustrated with US spending on NATO and European defence, Trump recently said Putin could invade NATO and “do what the hell he wants” if European partners do not step up their own defence spending. A longtime admirer of Putin, Trump regards Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as a ‘salesman’ and has already threatened to cut US aid to Ukraine. With conflict fatigue setting in across Europe, and Ukraine struggling to hold ground, maintaining support for Ukraine without the United States will prove a difficult challenge for the next UK Prime Minister. It will also, inevitably, force a reevaluation of the UK’s foreign policy posture – pushing whoever the next Prime Minister is closer to Europe, in order to meet Ukraine’s needs, as well as to fill the vacuum left by a less proactive Trump-led US on the world stage.

Of course, these challenges are not unique to Trump, and reflect broader isolationist trends in US foreign policy. Given the challenges Biden faced in getting aid for Ukraine through Congress, it’s unlikely a significant aid package would be particularly forthcoming under Biden either. With US voters skeptical of the role that the US has traditionally played on the world stage, Biden has moved to an increasingly hawkish approach to China and towards economic isolationism. Whoever is the next US President, it is clear that the role the US looks to play in the world is changing. Trump will just intensify those trends.

For Labour though, Trump being in the White House will be uniquely difficult. Not only is there a clear gulf between Starmer’s and Trump’s values and ambitions on the world stage, a number of Labour politicians, including Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy, have had some rather undiplomatic things to say about Trump over the years. Sadly for Labour Trump isn’t known to be a forgiving man. And while Labour is eager to find a ‘common cause’ with the Republican leader, there is no denying it will be a challenging relationship. This isn’t to say that it will do irreparable damage to the relationship – far from it. The so called ‘special relationship’ has endured difficult relations between leaders before, and no doubt will again. The question is who will be in charge and how comfortable and stable that relationship will be. We won’t have to wait long to find out.