15 Jul The European Political Community Summit: What To Expect

Facing war on its own soil, an ever-growing migration challenge, and a European-wide cost-of-living crisis, the last few years have been difficult for the European neighbourhood. More recently, high leadership turnover, electoral shocks, and the rise of right-wing nationalist parties have further rocked European stability. Established in 2022, the European Political Community (EPC) was designed to meet some of those challenges, by strengthening cooperation and policy coordination across Europe, beyond the EU.

Later this week, the EPC will commence its fourth summit, this time hosted by the UK. Questions have, and will continue to, linger over the efficacy of the EPC. Will the summit’s ambitions around democracy, migration and energy security, come to fruition? Or will the EPC simply be mired in bureaucracy, political grandstanding and division?

The EPC’s Past, Present and Future: Responding to Russia 

The EPC was formed, first and foremost, as a reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with French President Emmanuel Macron proposing the formation of the EPC as a way to tackle European security issues in the broadest sense. While criticisms have been levied at the EPC for being merely a fig leaf to EU candidate nations which prolongs an already painfully slow accession process, in reality the EPC also serves its own unique function. By allowing non-EU countries such as Ukraine, some of the Balkan states and Turkey to engage in neutral, equal discussions with their European counterparts (rather than as subordinate candidate countries) the level playing field is conducive to a more unified, cohesive continent. So far, all EU candidate nations have attended every EPC summit, emphasising the perceived value of the summit for those pursuing EU membership. 

And, the inclusion of states on the road to EU and NATO membership – namely Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova – brings nations threatened by Russia under the wing of Europe. Conscious of the fact that these states face the most profound threat from Russian expansionism, the EPC provides smaller states with a degree of protection (albeit more symbolically, rather than via formal collective security guarantees), and an opportunity to air, and gain support for, their concerns. The 2024 summit’s timing shortly after the NATO Summit, which saw new packages of military and financial aid from European states to Ukraine, means that the EPC summit is unlikely to yield any major new aid commitments, particularly from NATO members. Nevertheless, this week’s summit will provide a valuable opportunity for a wide range of European nations to work together to find collective solutions to some of Europe’s biggest security challenges, not least how to maintain support for Ukraine.

Persistent Challenges

But it hasn’t always been a smooth ride.  The excitement that had flooded 2022’s inaugural summit seemingly dissipated at the 2023 Granada Summit, with key figures, Turkish President Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Kosovan Prime Minister Albin Kurti, absent, and with attempts at conflict-resolution between both Kosovo and Serbia as well as Azerbaijan and Armenia, in turn fundamentally limited. The 2023 Granada Summit also ended on a sour note when the final press conference, intended to be the high point of the summit, was cancelled by Spain after the UK and  Italy led an unforeseen roundtable on migration, much to the hosts’ frustration.

This failure to produce genuine consensus and buy-in across European nations has culminated in a degree of pessimism over the EPC as a forum. This is not helped by the recent spate of divisive elections across Europe and the increasingly divergent political views held by European leaders, which is likely to inhibit cohesive decision making. Of particular note is the current gridlock in French politics. Given the EPC is widely regarded as the French President’s ‘pet project’, a domestically-focused President Macron will certainly undermine the momentum of the Summit.

And Macron is not alone – across Europe, domestic politics is defining and overshadowing international engagement. With the EPC involving 40 governments, building consensus across increasingly politically divergent nations will be challenging. As we have seen with previous summits, where consensus is agreed, it risks being vague, discordant, and lacking in accountability.

An opportunity for Keir? 

It is no secret that the UK and Europe have had a rather fraught relationship  post-Brexit. While steadfast UK support towards Ukraine and the signing of the Windsor Framework have certainly helped improve relations, the new UK Government has its work cut out in rebuilding relations.

With Keir Starmer still in his first few days in government, the EPC Summit provides the perfect opportunity for Starmer to set out on the right foot. No doubt, Keir Starmer will endeavour to use the summit, first and foremost, to set out his ambition for reorientating the UK back towards Europe, especially when it comes to national security. He’ll be looking to recement the UK, and Europe’s, commitment to Ukraine and to Europe’s enduring collective security.

Starmer’s second priority will be reimagining the focus on immigration. With the focus on migration already set by his predecessor, Starmer will look to use the Summit to espouse the values of a humane, practical and effective approach to irregular migration. Having already scrapped the UK’s Rwanda asylum plan, the summit offers Keir another early opportunity to make progress on the agreements with France and other nations on returns and family reunion as pledged in the Labour manifesto. With immigration a top priority for the British public, the new Prime Minister will hope to kill two birds with one stone – tackling the migration question and ‘reconnecting’ with Europe.