28 Nov BFPG’s November Review
November has ushered in a whirlwind of major geopolitical events, with the election of Donald Trump in the United States chief among them. BFPG has been out and about in the media and at events, analysing what the result means for the UK and the world. With the President-elect this week pledging to immediately introduce a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports, as well as an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports, upon entering office, it’s a striking reminder of the change in the US’ role in the world that we are about to see, and the global ramifications of that.
Indeed many of those effects are already starting to be felt. This month has seen major escalation in the Ukraine war, as both sides prepare for a Trump presidency and a potential withdrawal of the US security guarantee in Europe. The G20 Summit and COP29 also both failed to gain any real momentum, overshadowed by a fractured geopolitical environment.
It’s been a challenging month then, and a sign of things to come. The next few months will be full of political maneuvering and posturing, as nations scramble to prepare for an incoming Trump Presidency and to work out what it means for their own position in the world. As ever, BFPG will be on hand to bring you the latest analysis from a UK perspective, as we navigate these increasingly uncertain times.
November Analysis
Making the Domestic Case for Defence Spending in the Era of Trump
BFPG Director Evie Aspinall writes for UK in a Changing Europe, exploring public support for UK defence spending, highlighting that this is critical for developing our defensive capabilities in ways that both meet our pressing security needs, and which secure true democratic consent. READ HERE
Back to the Future: What Comes Next in Trump 2.0
BFPG Associate Fellow and former US Embassy staffer Michael Martins reflects on Trump’s first term in office, what it can tell us about what Trump’s foreign policy ambitions might be this time around, and what it means for global affairs. READ HERE
President Trump: The Ripple Effect
BFPG Director Evie Aspinall explores how the rest of the world, from Europe to China to the Middle East, will respond to Trump’s election, and what the second-order implications of a Trump presidency may be. READ HERE
The UK and Trump: Time to Get Real(ist)
BFPG Senior Advisor David Landsman explores the likely foreign policy stances of a second Trump administration and outlines how the UK should approach to a second Trump presidency. READ HERE
Brazil’s G20 Summit: Bridging Global North-South Relations?
Ahead of the G20 Summit, held earlier this month, BFPG Researcher Eliza Keogh considered what success would look like when it comes to amplifying the voice and aims of the ‘Global South’ within global decision-making. READ HERE
Online Event: President Trump – Where Next for the UK and the World?
BFPG Director Evie Aspinall and BFPG Associate Fellow Michael Martins held an online webinar following President-elect Donald Trump’s victory to explore what the result means for the UK, how it may impact global power dynamics and how the UK should respond to the result. WATCH HERE
Diplomatic Hour
November saw BFPG welcome our final Diplomatic Hour speakers for 2024. We were delighted to host the Ambassador of Armenia, His Excellency Mr Varuzhan Nersesyan, for a private roundtable focused on Armenia’s foreign and security policy and perspective on current regional issues. Later in the month, we were also fortunate to host the Ambassador of Hungary, His Excellency Dr Ferenc Kumin PhD, to reflect on Hungary’s priorities for its EU Presidency and its approach to current geopolitical challenges. We thank both Ambassadors greatly for their time.
As we wrap up the series for 2024, we want to thank all of the Ambassadors who have shared their insights with us, supporting the series and its success. We very much look forward to continuing Diplomatic Hour into 2025, and welcome London-based embassy colleagues to get in touch if they are interested in being involved in the programme for 2025.
Elsewhere at BFPG
Over the course of the month, BFPG have been busy engaging across the foreign policy community, largely on the implications of a second Trump presidency. Highlights include speaking to Bloomberg UK and the European Leadership Network about what Europe’s reaction should be, and to the Council on Geostrategy on the UK’s own course of action.
Elsewhere, BFPG Senior Research Fellow, Professor Victoria Baines, joined the Infinite Monkey Cage podcast to consider the role of AI and quantum computing in both cyberwarfare and cyberdefence, and what the future of this space might look like. You can listen here.
