08 Nov President Trump: The Ripple Effect

President Donald Trump will take office in January with a bold, and somewhat unpredictable, vision for the United States’ role in the world. Elsewhere, BFPG has analysed what exactly that vision may entail, but, just as important as Trump’s own ambitions is how the rest of the world reacts to his Presidency – which nations are emboldened by their alignment with Trump, who will move closer to or further away from the US, and who seizes the opportunity to fill the global power vacuum that Trump will leave behind? Here we explore the likely ripple effects of a second Trump Presidency.

Europe for European defence 

Regardless of the US election outcome, it was widely accepted that the next US President would place renewed pressure on Europe to take on a greater share of the responsibility for its own defence and security. But, with Trump threatening to leave NATO if Europe doesn’t increase its defence spending, Trump’s election raises these stakes, and places Europe on high alert for a significant recalibration of US support.

This is long overdue – Europe has, for decades, relied heavily on US leadership and resources within NATO, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only highlighted the precarity of European security but also the urgent need for Europe to invest more in its own defence. While few believe Trump would actually leave NATO, across Europe there will no doubt be many sobering conversations in the coming weeks and months about the need to invest more and invest quickly, in order to protect European security and maintain support for Ukraine. 

These conversations won’t be easy. Our own polling has shown how unwilling the British public is to provide the financial investment needed to meet urgent security needs. And this challenge is reflected all over Europe. As populations face an ongoing cost-of-living crisis and deep-seated economic challenges, making the case to the public for investing more in defence is not straightforward. So while alarm bells are certainly ringing across Europe, and European leaders will be eager to show Trump that they are taking European security seriously, moving the dial on European defence spending will be far trickier than many might hope.

A more united Europe? 

Trump’s isolationist approach to US foreign policy has also strengthened a broader belief that Europe must be more united in both its domestic and foreign policy. Indeed, within hours of Trump’s election, President Macron of France and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany had a phone call to commit to a more united Europe moving forwards. The need for this is clear. With a more absent US, Europe will find itself more isolated on the world stage and it will have to take on a greater global leadership role if it wants to fill the void left by the US. To fulfil that role, Europe needs to be more consistent and united in both its domestic and international policy, in order to speak with authority and legitimacy on the world stage.

But Europe is far from united. Euroscepticism and populism are a growing challenge across Europe, and nations are increasingly fragmented on how to tackle key issues like the Middle East and Ukraine. And while Trump’s election may provide renewed impetus for European unity, it will also play into the hands of some of the EU’s biggest sceptics.

Take Viktor Orban, for example, who has been a thorn in the EU’s side in recent months, not least through his recent ‘peace mission’ to Russia and China. Trump’s win may just make Orban even more influential. A public endorser of Trump, Orban has long been parroting Trump’s lines about Trump securing a ceasefire in Ukraine ‘within 24 hours’ and is widely admired by Trump’s allies for his strong authoritarian leadership. Ideologically aligned and personally admired, Orban will likely be in favour in the new Trump administration – not only will that embolden Orban to take a more forthright stance on Ukraine but it will also give Orban leverage as a potential bridge between Europe and the US. At a time where others will be looking for unity, Orban, Italian leader Giorgia Meloni, and other populist European leaders will be more empowered than ever to disrupt that unity.

An emboldened Israel 

While President Trump successfully avoided speaking in any concrete terms about his approach to the Middle East during the election campaign, his track record speaks for itself. In his first term in office he recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and recognised Israel’s sovereignty over Golan Heights. And while Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s relationship hasn’t always been smooth sailing, Netanyahu’s emphatic description of Trump’s win as “history’s greatest comeback” thinly disguises his clear delight at Trump’s election.

Crucially though, while Trump is full-throated in his support for Israel, he is eager to limit US involvement internationally. Indeed, he used his victory speech to pointedly declare – “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars”, a remark no doubt aimed at both the Middle East and Russia and Ukraine. Trump will therefore be eager for Netanyahu to conclude the war, and quickly, in order to limit US engagement. Indeed, he is said to have told Netanyahu to end the war before he enters office. However, his relative lack of concern for the means by which that is achieved will give Israel relative free rein to do so in whatever manner it sees fit. Israel is likely to seize that opportunity while it has the chance.

A cautious but retaliatory China 

Trump was incredibly forthright throughout the campaign on his views on China, not least in his threats to impose 60% tariffs on China. China, meanwhile, has pledged to continue to work with the US based on the principles of mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation, claiming there are ‘no winners’ in a trade war. With the Chinese economy already struggling, 60% tariffs would be crippling and China will be limited in its capacity to respond. 

But if Trump does start a major trade war, China will, nevertheless, hit back – targeting American companies with interests in China, selling US treasuries, devaluing the yuan and targeting US exports of agricultural goods. The impact on global trade would be huge. China, if it can, would rather avoid this, but if Trump follows through on his trade rhetoric, a tit-for-tat trade war seems all but inevitable.

Strategic rivals filling the vacuum

President Trump will be eager to scale back the US’ leadership on the world stage – from Ukraine to climate change – arguing that the US should no longer have to shoulder the perceived burden of maintaining the global system. In its wake it will leave a significant power vacuum on the world stage. The UK, Europe and other US allies will scramble to try and fill it, but, themselves fractured and unwilling to provide the financial investment needed to fill the role, they will struggle to gain the momentum to do so. 

Meanwhile, strategic rivals like Russia and China will seize the opportunity. Both nations have been conducting significant influencing campaigns in the Global South and among emerging economies in recent years and will no doubt seek to leverage the opportunity to strengthen their global standing. This will have significant implications for the global order, particularly when it comes to the West’s influence. It’s undoubtedly one of the biggest risks that a Trump Presidency poses.