29 Apr After 100 Days of Trump, Where Next for the Transatlantic Relationship?
The first 100 days of President Trump have been more turbulent than even the most pessimistic analysts predicted. In just three months, he’s challenged and redefined key elements of American democracy, undermined the authority of US courts, attacked press freedoms, and left Elon Musk to slash federal budgets.
And that’s just domestically. His foreign policy has further upended the global environment. His trade war has thrown global markets into chaos, while his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement has undermined the multilateral system which the United States fought so hard to build less than a century ago. Meanwhile, his threats to annex Greenland and Canada and belligerent attacks on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have turned traditional US allies into bitter partners and outright enemies.
The pace at which Trump has managed to dismantle the traditional world order, its systems, structures and alliances, has been remarkable. While the world frantically scrambles to keep up, Trump keeps on moving.
The UK’s response has, so far, been to ‘keep calm and carry on’. From offering Trump a state visit to taking a pragmatic approach to US tariffs, the strategy has been to cautiously and carefully cooperate with Trump, while trying our best not to antagonise him.
The election of Mark Carney in Canada has thrown that approach up in the air, as pollsters and political advisors frantically analyse whether the UK Government should re-assess its own approach. The Conservatives had seemed a shoe-in when the Canadian election was called just a few months ago, but Carney managed to win over an increasingly nervous, and angry, Canadian electorate, through his forthright condemnation of President Trump. His win has sent shockwaves around the world.
Of course, the Canadian situation is very different; Trump poses a direct threat to Canada in a way that he doesn’t to the UK. Nevertheless, public disdain for Trump is clear in the UK too, with the majority of Britons having an unfavourable opinion of him. In BFPG’s own focus groups, I’ve been struck by the public dislike for Trump, and widespread discomfort that many Britons have around the UK cooperating with Trump.
The question for UK politicians then becomes should they change tact? Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey has been the first mover on this, seeking to position himself and his party as the only ones willing to stand up to President Trump. But this is an easier stance to take in opposition than in government. Regardless of the Government’s personal views on President Trump, the reality is that Trump is here to stay.
The UK must therefore be realistic. We are no longer a great power, but rather a mid-sized power (which benefits from a history of outsized influence) who must therefore recognise our relative importance (or lack thereof) to other nations, find partners where we can, and leverage the assets we do have in pursuit of our international objectives.
When it comes to the United States that means continuing to work with Trump. Not least because, in relative terms, President Trump likes the UK. He likes its history and tradition, he loves the Royal Family, and he has business links to Scotland. While that will only take us so far, it keeps the door open for the UK, more so than it does for many of our allies. And if the UK really cares about Ukraine, Europe, or its own economy, it must leverage that. It must continue to position itself both as a bridge between the United States and Europe, and utilise that, to get the best deals from both sides that it can.
This isn’t to say the UK shouldn’t start hedging its bets. It should. The United States is becoming an increasingly unreliable international partner and the UK should be looking to strengthen its relationships in Europe, the Indo-Pacific and beyond to protect its long term security and prosperity. But for now, the UK must accept the reality – the US is driving the global agenda. And swipes at Trump, however tempting they may be, achieve little, even if it might win over a few voters in the short-term.
