19 Dec 2024: Foreign Policy In Review
2024 has been a year defined by geopolitical tension and international conflict. From the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine to conflict in the Middle East and the deadly civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, the world has watched as the geopolitical arena becomes ever more fractious. Adding to the turbulence, 2024 was very much the year of elections, as over two billion people across more than 60 countries headed to the polls. A broad anti-incumbency trend saw voters in many countries send messages of frustration, and welcome a host of new leaders, bringing both opportunity and challenge to the global system. With all that has occurred throughout the past year, BFPG has compiled a list of the pivotal moments that shaped the geopolitical landscape in 2024.
January
January 1st – BRICS membership is expanded
BRICS, an intergovernmental organisation originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa welcomed four new members – Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Bringing together emerging economies, the Group seeks to challenge the global dominance of Western powers, particularly within international institutions. The group’s expansion has made BRICS more globally representative, with the Group now comprising 45% of the world’s population, giving it renewed weight on the world stage.
January 8th – Bangladesh PM won a fifth term
Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina, won office for a fifth term, in an election overshadowed by a brutal crackdown on opposition in the country. Her victory was short lived with anti-government, pro-democracy protests in July and August erupting across Bangladesh, forcing Hasina to flee to neighbouring India, with a warrant now out for her arrest. An interim government is now being led by Nobel peace laureate, Muhammad Yunus.
January 13th – The DPP won the Taiwanese election
Taiwan’s incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won its third consecutive presidency in January and pro-sovereignty candidate William Lai Ching-te took up the Presidency in May 2024. Upon being officially sworn in, Lai called on Beijing to stop its threats towards Taiwan and accept the existence of its democracy. This prompted growing tensions across the Taiwan Strait, including a hike in Chinese military exercises around Taiwan as punishment for “separatist acts”.
January 26th – The ICJ delivered first ruling in genocide case against Israel
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered its provisional measures, in the case brought by South Africa, which accused Israel of carrying out genocide in the Gaza Strip. Among other things, the court stated that Israel must “take all measures within its power” to prevent the commission of acts prohibited in the Genocide Convention. The ICJ has since announced a number of additional measures, including providing basic food supplies and Israel halting its offensive in Rafah. Some 14 other nations have since announced their intention to participate in the trial to support South Africa, which is likely to take years to complete.
January 27th – The UK paused funding for the UNRWA
The UK, alongside other Western allies, including Germany and the United States, paused funding for the UNRWA, the primary UN Agency providing aid to Palestinian refugees, over allegations of staff involvement in the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel. In July, after an independent review and UNRWA commitments to management reforms, the UK followed its allies and restored funding to the UNRWA. However, just months later in October, Israel’s parliament banned the agency from operating within Israel and occupied East Jerusalem, severely limiting the agency’s ability to support Gaza and the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
February
February 13th – Pakistan formed a new coalition government
A coalition including the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s party (PPP) agreed to form the next government of Pakistan, shutting out the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) – the party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan – despite the PTI receiving the most votes in Pakistan’s general election. Simmering tensions among Khan’s supporters culminated in November, when tens of thousands marched on the capital, Islamabad, demanding his release from prison. The movement was eventually quelled by security forces.
March
March 7th – Sweden joined NATO
Sweden became a fully fledged member of NATO, after Turkey lifted its opposition. Sweden has historically adopted a position of military neutrality dating back to the Napoleonic wars. Sweden’s decision to join the alliance is therefore a striking signal of the challenging geopolitical environment and brings Sweden’s formidable military-industrial complex to the alliance. With Finland’s earlier admission in 2023, the Nordic additions bring a geographic advantage that will assist in limiting the potential Russian use of the Baltic Sea for intimidation or invasion.
March 17th – Putin secured another six years in power
Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘won’ reelection, in a landslide election described as a “farce” by European officials. While no alternative result was expected, Putin’s sweeping victory is totemic of the Kremlin’s crackdown on opposition, as the war in Ukraine rumbles on.
March 19th – Hong Kong’s legislature passed a security law
Hong Kong’s staunchly pro-China legislature unanimously passed a tough new security law – ‘Article 23’ – in the latest crackdown on dissent, following the 2019 pro-democracy protests. The law threatens stringent penalties for a wide range of actions, including life imprisonment for activities that authorities deem a threat to national security.
April
April 13th – Iran launched a direct strike on Israel
Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel in its first-ever direct strike on Israeli soil. The attack was widely anticipated, following an Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate building in Syria’s capital, Damascus, on March 31st. Retributive strikes continued throughout the year, and tensions peaked when Iran-backed Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed by an Israeli raid in Iran, on the 31st of July, and then again in September, when an Israeli airstrike on Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Iran-backed, Lebanese militant group, Hezbollah.
May
May 6th – Israel launched a ground offensive in Rafah
Israel began its long-threatened military offensive in and around the city of Rafah in Southern Gaza – the last designated ‘humanitarian safe zone’ in Gaza, in which 1.5 million Palestinians were sheltering. The United States pushed Israel to go into Rafah with a more targeted, precise operation but denied that the Israeli Defence Forces’ early attacks, which killed hundreds of civilians, crossed any of its red lines. Since the invasion, more than 800,000 people have fled to other areas in the strip, which also lack the basic essentials and services to accommodate them, leading to a severe deterioration of living conditions.
May 28th – Ireland, Spain and Norway recognised Palestinian statehood
Ireland, Spain and Norway officially recognised a Palestinian state, in an effort to coordinate pressure on Israel to end the conflict in Gaza and to move other allies to follow suit (which Slovenia later did). The decisions, which triggered an angry backlash from Israel, brought the number of UN member states who recognise a state of Palestine to over 140 out of 193.
June
June 2nd – South Africa’s ANC lost its majority
South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) party lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it swept to power in 1994 at the end of apartheid. This forced an unlikely coalition between traditional rivals, the ANC and the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA), as well as a number of other smaller parties. South Africa’s parliament re-elected incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa as President to lead the historic Government of National Unity (GNU) coalition, as the sun set on the dominance of the ANC and a new era in national politics dawns in the country.
June 4th – Indian PM Modi won a third term
Narendra Modi secured a third consecutive term as India’s Prime Minister. However, he fell short of a majority for the first time, requiring India’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to back him as the leader of the coalition (which they did unanimously). As such, the world sees the continuation of India’s delicately balanced foreign policy – exemplified by Modi’s visits to both Ukraine and Russia within a few weeks of each other in the summer, as India seeks to continue its close relationship with both Russia and the West.
June 9th – Far-right parties surged in European Parliament elections
Centre-right parties maintained their majority in the European Parliament, paving the way for centre-right Ursula von der Leyen to secure her second term as European Commission President in July. Nonetheless, it was the surge in populist right-wing and far-right parties that captured attention; propelled by opposition to the Green Deal, anti-migration sentiment and economic insecurity. The growing number of far-right politicians in Europe will put pressure on mainstream parties across Europe, with implications for cohesion across the EU and for the EU’s role on the world stage.
June 19th – Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defence pact
Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defence pact, pledging that Russia and North Korea would aid each other in the event of aggression against either country. In October, North Korea began sending troops to fight with Russian soldiers in Ukraine, in what NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, called “a significant escalation” in the Russia-Ukraine war. Intelligence information put the number of troops at 10,000 but Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the contingent could grow to 100,000, urging allied nations to intensify military aid.
July
July 1st – Hungary assumed the Presidency of the Council of the European Union
Hungary’s Presidency got off to a rocky start, as Hungarian President Viktor Orbán undertook a three-leg “peace mission”, visiting Ukraine, Russia and China, without the backing of the European Commission, or indeed, Ukraine. As a result, Hungary’s role as host of the August meeting of EU members’ foreign and defence ministers was revoked, furthering the rifts between Hungary and most other European nations.
July 5th – Labour won the UK General Election
The UK Labour Party won the 2024 UK general election with a large majority, putting the Labour Party back in power after 14 years. Since July, Foreign Secretary David Lammy has led a foreign policy agenda with ‘progressive realism’ as an organising principle. The new government has sought to reaffirm the UK’s commitment to Ukraine, NATO and Western security guarantees and to begin resetting relations with the EU.
July 18th – UK hosted the EPC
The UK hosted the fourth European Political Community (EPC) summit, which the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer used to kickstart a ‘reset’ of UK-EU relations. The summit delivered deals including closer security and migration arrangements between the UK and Europe, marking the first of a number of announcements that have sought to strengthen ties with Europe. In October Foreign Secretary David Lammy became the first Foreign Secretary to attend the regular meeting of EU Foreign Ministers since Brexit, and in October the UK signed a landmark Trinity House security agreement with Germany. A number of thorny issues remain, however, from youth mobility to fishing rights, and trade-offs will be required on both sides to enable stronger UK-EU relations.
August
August 6th – Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk, Russia
Ukraine began its cross-border attack into the Kursk region of Russia, catching Moscow unprepared, and at its height leaving Ukrainian forces in control of about 1,376 sq km of Russian soil. However, Russian forces have since won back about 40% of these gains, and the gains in Kursk do not reflect the tide of the overall war. In October alone, Russia was able to occupy an estimated 500 sq km of additional Ukrainian territory, with Ukraine very much on the back foot.
September
September 2nd – UK suspends some arms exports to Israel
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that the UK will suspend 30 of the 350 licences covering arms exports from the UK to Israel, on the basis that they might be used to commit or facilitate a serious violation of international humanitarian law. The suspensions will have limited impact on Israel’s military operations, as less than 1% of Israel’s total arms imports come from the UK. However, the gesture speaks to the Labour government’s efforts to walk the line between supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, and its obligations to protect international law and human rights. The government’s announcement came 8 months after more than 600 lawyers signed a letter that called for the UK to end arms exports to Israel, as a measure to “prevent genocide”.
October
October 1st – Israel launched a ground invasion in Lebanon
Israel launched a ground invasion into Southern Lebanon – the fifth since 1978 – following over a year of growing hostilities between Israel and militant group, Hezbollah, which were re-ignited following the October 7th attacks and subsequent Israeli war on fellow Iran-backed militant group, Hamas, in Gaza. The ground invasion was preceded by an attack which saw the explosion of thousands of pagers used by members of Hezbollah, claiming the lives of at least 12 and wounding around 3000. Israel’s two-month ground invasion of Lebanon killed thousands and displaced over 1.2 million people, before being halted by a ceasefire agreement which began on November 27th. The deal included the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon and an end to the Hezbollah presence in the area. A five-country committee, chaired by the United States, will monitor the truce.
October 21st – India and China agreed on disengagement along the Himalayan border
India and China agreed to de-escalate tensions and the deadly hand-to-hand clashes that have been flaring along the Himalayan border since 2020. Days later, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Russia, pledging to resume dialogue between their nations. While tensions remain, closer relations between the two neighbours will have far-reaching consequences, particularly for the regional balance of power.
October 27th – Incumbent anti-EU government won the Georgian election
The ruling Georgian Dream Party secured an unexpected majority in Georgia’s parliamentary elections, amid allegations of voter fraud, vote-buying, and harassment of election observers. The EU Parliament subsequently called for new elections to be held. In turn, the Georgian Dream Party announced its suspension of accession talks with the European Union, until the end of 2028. The move prompted Georgians to take to the streets across the country; these were the first elections under a new fully proportional system, and held hopes for many of advancing Georgia’s European Union prospective candidacy. Now Georgia faces further democratic backsliding at home and a pivot away from the West.
November
November 5th – Donald Trump won the US Presidential election
Republican candidate Donald Trump defeated Democratic-nominee Kamala Harris, and won a second term as President of the United States. The Republican Party also gained control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, giving the President-elect a strong grip on power. President-elect Trump will be inaugurated on the 20th January 2025. His Presidency will raise major questions for the future of international politics, not least the United States’ commitment to NATO and Ukraine and the potential for an escalation of a US-China trade war.
November 18th – United States authorised Ukraine to use long-range missiles against Russia
Outgoing United States President Joe Biden dropped his opposition to Ukraine firing long-range ATACMS missiles inside Russian territory – a policy the United States had been stalling on for months. On November 20th, reports then emerged that Ukraine had also used the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles inside Russian territory. Russia responded by launching an intermediate-range ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro – the first time that Russia has launched such a weapon – warning that its next use could be against Ukraine’s NATO allies who allowed Kyiv to use their long-range missiles against Russia.
November 21st – The ICC issued arrest warrants for Israel-Gaza leaders
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his former Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, as well as Mohammed Deif, a Hamas military commander, although reports state he was killed in July. The men were found to bear criminal responsibility for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity. Several nations who are members of the ICC including Argentina and Hungary, alongside the United States (albeit not a member state of the ICC) rejected the ICC decision, raising questions about the legitimacy of the ICC and the international legal institutions at upholding global order.
December
December 3rd – South Korean President imposed martial law
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol unexpectedly imposed martial law – for the first time since 1979 – in a move proposed to remove “pro-North Korean forces” from South Korea and to “protect the free constitutional order”. The declaration suspended normal civil rights, including political party and parliamentary activities, and allowed the use of military law on the civilian population. Within 3 hours, South Korean lawmakers had forcibly made their way into parliament and overturned the declaration. Lawmakers later moved to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol for insurrectionary behaviour and South Korea’s constitutional court must now review the impeachment proceedings to determine if he will be removed from office.
December 4th – French Prime Minister ousted in no-confidence vote
The French government collapsed, after Prime Minister Michel Barnier was ousted in a no-confidence vote – just three months after he was appointed by President Emmanuel Macron. Opposition parties tabled the motion after the former Brexit negotiator used special powers to force through his budget without a vote. On December 13th, Macron appointed centrist leader François Bayrou as Barnier’s replacement, in a bid to end months of political turmoil.
December 8th – Syria’s Assad regime fell
Rebel fighters captured the Syrian capital of Damascus, toppling the Assad regime that had been in power in the country since 1971, and ending the 13-year civil war that killed more than 500,000 people. Forces led by opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – designated a terrorist organisation in the UK – took the capital following an offensive that lasted less than two weeks. President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow, and Syria now faces the monumental task of rebuilding a brutally war-torn country still being fought over by various competing armed groups.
