Public opinion on global threats and the future of NATO

The 2019 General Election has been unusual for a number of reasons, but particularly for the marked differences between the parties’ offerings on a range of issues – including foreign policy. The manifestos from the three largest parties present starkly different approaches to defining Britain’s role in the world, reflecting the breakdown of cross-party consensus. Foreign policy has also been given unique emphasis due to the timing of the annual NATO Summit, held in the UK in the last week of the campaign. To better understand how the evolving positions of the parties reflect and shape their voters, we undertook a nationally representative public opinion survey with Opinium during the campaign.

Global Threats to Peace and Security

When asked which nation, or league of nations, they believe are the biggest threats to global peace and security, a quarter (25%) of Britons identify Russia as the single biggest threat – a clear outlier amongst nations. The next most feared nation is China, with 14%. Overall, 57% of Britons place Russia in their top three threats, with 40% selecting North Korea, 37% China and 35% Iran. Strikingly, 30% of Britons also identify the United States as a threat to global peace and security.

2019 Voting Intention

Conservative voters overwhelmingly regard Russia as the single greatest threat (31%), followed by China (18%) and Iran (17%). Their concern about Iran vastly eclipses that of other voters. Labour voters are also most likely to choose Russia (26%), but this is closely followed by the United States, with more than one in five Labour voters (21%) identifying the ‘special relationship’ as a special threat. By contrast, just 5% of Conservative voters see the US as the greatest threat. Brexit Party supporters hold an outsized concern about Russia (42%), and are three times more likely than Conservatives to see the US as a principal threat.

Demographics and Geography

Age is the most important influence. Older Britons are much more concerned about threats other nations pose than younger Britons, who are more than twice as likely to choose ‘don’t know’. Britons over 55 are twice as likely to see China, and Iran, as the single largest global threat. Public opinion also differs by region, with residents in the South East and South West most concerned about Russia, while those in Northern Ireland, London and the North West are more likely to regard America as the premier threat.

The Future of NATO

A majority of Britons (66%) continue to believe that the UK’s membership of NATO will remain important to protecting national security in the future, with 38% believing it is ‘critically important’. Only 7% actively believe it is not important, although 17% are unsure. Support for NATO grows exponentially with age: 84% of Britons aged over 55 believe NATO is important, compared to 63% of 35-54-year-olds and just 44% of under-35s. The most enthusiastic supporters are Liberal Democrat voters (84%), followed by Conservatives (81%) and Labour (69%).

Conclusions

Our membership of NATO continues to hold a high degree of importance to Britons, with a comfortable majority recognising its value. Nonetheless, tremendous disparities of enthusiasm exist between regions, parties and – most significantly – age groups. The declining interest between the generations should trouble leaders who wish to continue to defend the rules-based world order. There is a significant task ahead for the next government to persuade younger Britons of the value of multilateralism.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of the BFPG.