The Divided Continent
Understanding Europe’s social landscape in 2020 and beyond. As populism has become part of the furniture in Europe, focus has shifted away from examining the origins of these anti-establishment movements.
By Sophia Gaston
As populism has become part of the furniture in Europe, focus has shifted away from examining the origins of these anti-establishment movements, and back towards fascination with the fortunes of the leaders themselves. Meanwhile, muted victories for traditional parties in a handful of elections are held up as proof that we have passed ‘peak populism’.
Beneath the surface of Europe’s nascent political stabilisation, however, its social challenges remain profound. The Divided Continent, a new analysis of public opinion I have conducted for the European Policy Centre across 13 major EU member states, shines light on the tensions and conflicts simmering beneath the surface as Europe enters a crucial decade.
Countries such as France, Germany and the Netherlands are struggling with their transitions to post-industrial economies and diverse, empowered societies. In Southern states such as Italy, Spain and Greece, the spectre of the financial crisis continues to loom large. And in post-communist states in Eastern and Central Europe, fragile democracies are faltering and pulling away from the liberal European ambition.
One consistent and troubling theme is the disappointment citizens feel towards their nation’s trajectory – in economic opportunities, national standing, and community cohesion. Estonia is the only member state surveyed where a majority believe quality of life has improved in their lifetime, with as many as 70% of the French and three-quarters of Greeks believing it has fallen.
Two of the most fiercely contested battlegrounds of the coming decade will be over the inter-generational contract and the next phase of the feminist movement. Women are considerably more likely to feel vulnerable to economic inequality and to be concerned about the preservation of national traditions. Between the generations, there are profoundly different attitudes towards democracy, immigration, patriotism and cultural traditions.
There has been much discussion about the future of liberal democracy. Just 37% of Europeans surveyed consistently supported democratic principles, and half of the electorate is disengaged from political participation. The EU’s fresh leadership is keen to drive forward an ambitious agenda; however they will be unlikely to succeed without a deep understanding of the delicate social ecosystem.
The full working paper can be downloaded free via the European Policy Centre’s website.