Emerging Technologies, Nuclear-Conventional Entanglement, and Nuclear Risks: P5 and Implications for Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Jingdong Yuan examines how artificial intelligence and the blurring of conventional and nuclear systems are raising the risk of nuclear escalation.
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Yuan places these trends in a “Third Nuclear Age” of eroding arms control and great-power rivalry. AI promises faster early warning and better decision support. It also brings automation bias, corrupted data, cyber manipulation and shorter decision times. Where conventional and nuclear forces share bases, delivery systems or command structures, a conventional strike can be read as a nuclear one, which could push states such as China towards a launch-on-warning posture.
Yuan compares the UK, US, Chinese, Russian and French positions and finds broad agreement on keeping humans in charge but little concrete dialogue. The US and Russia voted against the 2025 UN resolutions on military AI. He calls on the five to agree specific limits on AI’s role in nuclear command and control.
This paper forms part of a guest series by academics and experts on nuclear non-proliferation, arms control and risk reduction, written for the British Foreign Policy Group. The papers are published to encourage debate and understanding and do not represent the views of BFPG. You can read them all here.