28 Feb BFPG’s February 2025 Review
In foreign policy it can often feel like every month has the potential to significantly redefine the global order, but rarely has that been so true as in February. United States President Trump has hit the ground running in his efforts to shed American leadership of the multilateral liberal world order. Most defining has been his approach to Ukraine, with peace negotiations held between the United States and Russia, without the presence of Ukraine or even Europe, and a calamitous meeting between Trump and Zelensky, which have left the future of Ukraine looking increasingly precarious.
Europe has scrambled to respond, hosting emergency Summits and exercising their best diplomatic charm to bring Trump back from the brink. Starmer has been at the forefront of these efforts, meeting with both Trump and Zelensky and hosting a gathering of European leaders in order to find a workable solution for peace in Ukraine. This has come too with a welcome commitment to increase UK defence spending – to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% by 2030, and Starmer’s efforts have won him support across Europe and the United States.
However, the increase in defence spending has come at the expense of UK aid, which has now been cut to just 0.3% of GNI, a figure which is even lower when you account for the significant amount of the aid budget spent domestically on housing refugees. Increasing defence spending was always going to require difficult choices but with UK development spending already on its knees, and the United States cutting USAID, the decision will have significant consequences – not only for the UK’s international reputation but also for national security, as Russia and China look to fill the void left by cuts to Western aid.
It has been a challenging month then for the Prime Minister and a major test for Western unity and determination, and there is, no doubt, much turbulence ahead. As ever, BFPG will be on hand to bring you the latest analysis from a UK perspective, as we navigate these increasingly uncertain times.
Recent Analysis
2025 Foreign Policy Calendar
Struggling to keep up with the pace of geopolitical change? BFPG’s Foreign Policy Caendar has summarised all the key foreign policy dates for 2025 for you to keep track of. READ HERE.
The UK’s Role in the Horn of Africa
As penholder for Somalia, what should the UK’s approach to the Horn of Africa be? What would a strategic and joined-up approach to security and development look like across the Horn of Africa? Guest contributor Eliot Wilson explores. READ HERE.
The US-China Balancing Act
As the UK tilts back towards China in search of growth and economic opportunities, BFPG Associate Fellow James Jennion explores how the UK should balance its relationships with the world’s two biggest powers, the United States and China. READ HERE.
Diplomatic Hour
As BFPG’s Diplomatic Hour continues, in February BFPG was delighted to welcome their Excellencies, the Ambassador of Morocco, and the High Commissioner for Cyprus, for private roundtables with key stakeholders from across the foreign policy community. The Ambassador of Morocco provided an insightful overview of Morocco’s role in the world, particularly focusing on Morocco’s bridging role between both regional and global players. Meanwhile, the High Commissioner for Cyprus joined us last week to explore how Cyprus is navigating the geopolitical tensions of today and opportunities to strengthen the bilateral relationship. We thank both Heads of Mission for their time and attendees for joining us.
UK Soft Power
BFPG Senior Advisor David Landsman spoke at the Global Soft Power Summit, exploring the role of multilateral organisations in today’s evolving global landscape. You can watch the full session here. The Summit acted as the launch for this year’s Global Soft Power Index, which revealed that the UK had dropped to third in the soft power rankings, falling behind China for the first time. January’s announcement of a new Soft Power Council, something the BFPG – as Co-Convenor of the UK Soft Power Group – has long proposed, could therefore not be more timely. BFPG has a number of ongoing projects on soft power which we look forward to sharing with you in March.
