27 Apr A Careful Diplomatic Dance: What to Expect From King Charles’ Visit to the United States

In a moment of major geopolitical uncertainty the UK is, rightly, using every diplomatic tool it can, to mitigate the impacts of the worst excesses of the Trump presidency

As King Charles III prepares to address a joint session of Congress this week, the familiar pageantry of a British state visit is being deployed with an unusually heavy burden. Officially, the trip is a celebration of the 250th anniversary of American independence and the long-standing friendship between the two nations. But beneath the surface, the atmosphere is anything but celebratory. 

King Charles will be only the second British monarch to take the podium before Congress, following in the footsteps of his late mother. However, while Queen Elizabeth II’s 1991 address which took place in the optimistic glow of a post-Cold War world and the immediate aftermath of the Gulf War, King Charles’ address is set against the backdrop of friction and volatility. 

The most immediate tension is the Iran war, a conflict that has fundamentally strained the transatlantic alliance. President Trump has pushed the UK and Europe to support its war in Iran, while the UK has tried its best to distance itself, with the Prime Minister declaring that it’s “not our war”. The UK has allowed the use of its bases only for defensive attacks, and has sought to use its diplomatic levers to de-escalate tensions and re-open the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has branded the UK’s response a “tragic mistake” as he makes increasingly provocative jibes about Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and threatens to rip up the recently agreed UK-United States trade deal.

With Trump distracted by Iran, and frustrated by what he sees as a failure of Europe to support him in the Middle East, the divide between the UK and the United States on Ukraine has grown wider, with Trump once again threatening to leave NATO. 

It is therefore unsurprising there have been calls by politicians and commentators in the UK for the visit to be cancelled, with many fearing the visit – designed to appeal to the President’s love of pomp and ceremony – rewards his behaviour.

But the reality is that once the visit was offered, there was no going back. Short of Trump actually leaving NATO or invading Greenland, rescinding the state visit was never on the cards. The damage that would do to an already fragile relationship with a man with a delicate ego, who holds significant military and economic leverage over the UK was never worth it. The UK is not in a strong enough position for diplomatic grandstanding, and the King and Keir Starmer both know it. 

So for the next week or so, King Charles will have to just grin and bear it. And the goal is clear, survival. Avoid deeply embarrassing moments, smooth over the friction between Trump and Starmer, and keep the channels of communication open by sheer force of Royal personality. 

The King’s speech will therefore be a carefully calibrated dance of diplomacy. Expect a speech designed to reassert the importance of the transatlantic relationship, and which speaks in clouded terms about the importance of democracy, unity, stability and collaboration. The underlying subtext though will be a polite, regal plea: Please stop destroying the global order, and please, just for a moment, be nice to us. 

Will it make much of a difference? Probably not. President Trump, particularly in his second term in office, has proven himself to be a deeply volatile character with little regard for the rules based international order. But in a moment of major geopolitical uncertainty the UK is, rightly, using every diplomatic tool it can, to mitigate the impacts of the worst excesses of the Trump presidency. Cancelling the visit could have caused a crisis, and even if there are only minor gains to be made, the UK should make the most of any opportunity to protect its interests. 

So don’t expect any big announcements from this state visit. Or any material, long term change in fracturing UK-US relations. Just hope that it goes off without a hitch and that it buys us, even just a moment, of light reprieve.