BFPG's October 2026 Review
A review of BFPG’s activities and responses to the major global events of October 2026.
Greetings from BFPG,
Since the UK’s change of government in the summer, October seemed to be the month when the UK found its voice on foreign policy. The EU reset was back on the agenda, as Prime Minister Burnham told the Commons that the UK-EU summit will take place in Brussels on 20th November, and the two sides will use the meeting to sign off new agreements on agri-food trade, emissions trading, a new youth mobility scheme and deeper cooperation on immigration. At the IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband began framing development as a national security issue, saying the UK’s G20 presidency would tackle developing-country debt and illicit financial flows. The UK also launched the Be Ready Campaign, designed to align the UK with European, Nordic and Baltic neighbours and reduce pressure on emergency services during crises.
In mid-October, the UK hosted President Zelensky ahead of the budget announcement, which Chancellor John Healey MP presented last week. While the Budget generally addressed domestic circumstances, the war in the Middle East clearly shaped it. The budget solidified funding for the Defence Investment Plan and set a 2030 spending target of 3% of GDP on defence, although we must wait until next year's Spending Review for this funding. The budget also identified 10bn in economic and military support for Ukraine.
November will likely be just as busy with Burham touching down in Antigua yesterday for the Commonwealth Summit, and the United States’ midterm elections taking place today. Here at BFPG we will be thinking about what these elections might mean for UK foreign policy going forward.
BFPG Out and About
BFPG started the month in Edinburgh, Scotland, where we, in collaboration with our sister organisation The D Group, explored Scotland’s role in national security and resilience. The Herald Scotland published a comprehensive analysis in the Sunday Herald; please stay tuned, as our research team will BFPG was active at the Party Conferences throughout September and into early October.
In October, BFPG’s Executive Chair moderated a panel on how the “new politics of sovereignty” play into developments of new technologies. David also chaired a panel reflecting on the future of AUKUS after its first five years with Dame Priti Patel, the Conservative Party’s International Secretary and former Shadow Foreign Secretary; David Reed MP, Shadow Minister for Defence; The Hon George Brandeis, former Australian High Commissioner; and Simon Blagden, an expert adviser to the MOD.
BFPG was also delighted to team up with Overton Advisory to host a timely discussion exploring British and European rearmament with Mike Martin, MP for Tunbridge Wells. The discussion was moderated by Michael Martins, Founder of Overton Advisory and Associate Fellow at BFPG. BFPG's Executive Chair, David Landsman OBE and Dean Aldridge from Bittium brought perspectives on where the British public stands on defence spending and what the UK can learn from its European allies, respectively.
We also held our first virtual BISA/BFPG UNG event of 2026/27. Over 150 Undergraduate and Master’s students from across the UK joined us to hear about careers in international affairs and the civil service. Those interested in joining the network can find out more here.
To round out the month, last week we hosted His Excellency Manar Dabbas, the Jordanian Ambassador to the UK, for the latest session in our Diplomatic Hour series. The discussion reflected on UK-Jordan relations and the Jordanian government's foreign policy priorities.
BFPG in the Media
“Storm Shadow delivery to Kyiv is a clear signal to Trump” Ed Arnold tells Adnkronos
Ed Arnold spoke to Italian news outlet Adnkronos about the UK's role in the evolution of military procurement in Ukraine and the political dynamics with the United States, stating:
“If the United States progressively reduces its share of aid, it will inevitably be up to European countries to fill the gap.
BFPG Senior Fellow Ed Arnold tells Politics Home about the UK Government’s national resilience campaign:"
Arnold argued that national resilience must be a 'recurring' theme in the government's media grid, a 'weekly thing', to truly cut through with the public: 'It's not about the processes. It's not about the guidance. It's not about the website. It's about the culture and the communication.'"
Jack Pannell discusses British public opinion of the US with The House Magazine
BFPG Senior Researcher Jack Pannell spoke to The House Magazine about how Britons' public opinion on the US differs across voting groups:
"Trump is 'a deeply toxic figure across the UK’ (...) The BFPG’s annual survey found that 67 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters trusted the US to act responsibly in the world; this year, 36 per cent did. Reform voters, at 45 per cent, are now the outliers. 'Nigel Farage is a friend of Trump, and that is a potential distinction for the Conservative Party: yes, we are more pro-US, but we are not necessarily in the pocket of MAGA,' Pannell says.”
Read our Latest Analysis
Foreign Policy at the Conservative Party Conference: BFPG’s Executive Chair, David Landsman, reflects on the 2026 Conservative Party Conference and what we can learn about how a future Conservative government might approach foreign policy.
Disinformation Goes Local: Foreign Interference and the UK’s New Europe Debate: BFPG Associate Fellow James Jennion argues that Russian interference in UK politics is becoming more local and more AI-driven, and the government’s response will have to match.