Prime Minister Burnham and the case of the Inescapable Foreign Policy

Since Andy Burnham returned to Westminster, we’ve often heard that he would prefer to focus on the domestic agenda, marking a contrast with his predecessor who was admired (or criticised) for dedicating a great deal of his time to engaging on the international stage.  Equally, the Prime Minister was warned that “events” would get in the way and he would be forced to find time for foreign affairs.

There are several good reasons for this warning.  Over several decades, with the rise of “summitry”, leaders and their immediate advisers have involved themselves more directly in diplomacy at the expense of Foreign Ministers who had previously been left largely to get on with it. More recently, geopolitical upheaval - as much the rise of China along with the challenges of climate, migration and AI, as the demands of Trump’s America – has forced itself onto leaders’ agendas.  Most important for a would-be “domestic Prime Minister” is that the developments in “far-away countries” we have been seeing – from war in Ukraine to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz - have a direct impact on the price of fuel, energy and everything else: the very issues that tend to matter most to voters at home.

September sees not only the return of MPs to Westminster, but also the UN General Assembly “High-Level” week at the end of the month, which Prime Minister Burnham has said he is “likely” to attend, to be followed by rescheduled EU/UK Summit later in the autumn. What’s on his international agenda and how will he be judged?

The Relationship with Donald Trump and the United States

The most immediate and visible challenge will be his first meeting with Donald Trump, most likely at the end of the month in New York.   Burnham has had plenty to say in the past about Trump, little of it positive, and the President has rarely been slow to criticise the UK Labour Government when it hasn’t acted in accordance with his wishes.   There will be plenty of opportunity for continued disagreements: on defence spending, energy and climate, and the Middle East for a start.  While some may relish a showdown between the leaders, the challenge for the Prime Minister will be to hold his own without provoking a major upset that spills over into the broader, still close, working relationship between the two countries.  Even if we don’t like Donald Trump, we are a long way from not needing the United States as an ally.

The War in Ukraine

During his recent visit to Kyiv, the Prime Minister has said that he was likely to attend UNGA in order to join with other allies in urging Trump to provide additional support to Ukraine. This will be a tough call as Ukraine is probably not at present at the top of the Washington’s agenda, while the threat from Russia remains Europe’s most pressing security concern.  The recent visit of CIA Director Ratcliffe to Moscow has aroused concerns among Europeans who have few effective lines of communication with Putin’s Moscow.   

That said, while European rhetoric remains strong, defence spending is on a steep rise in many countries, some remain less committed.   There are still obstacles within the EU to using frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. It is not clear how much more the UK can contribute in concrete terms.  As winter approaches, it remains unclear how the war will evolve on the ground – both sides are under considerable pressure.   The West appears to have few ideas of how to achieve a resolution.  BFPG’s research suggests that even in the UK, hitherto a strong supporter of Ukraine, public support has begun to flag.   Burnham’s hosting of Zelenskyy in London and subsequent visit to Kyiv, his first overseas trip as Prime Minister, demonstrates that British Government is committed to remaining steadfast in its support.   For now, “a little more of the same” is probably the measure of success.

Defence Spending

Clearly related is defence spending, where Chancellor John Healey has confirmed that the October Budget will focus on funding the Defence Investment Plan (DIP) and that he will defer the roadmap to reaching 3% of GDP until the 2027 Spending Review.   This less than full-throated support for defence appears broadly to align with public opinion.   British people regard national security as their top foreign policy concern and favour higher defence spending, but not at the expense of domestic priorities such as health, education and welfare.   For the Prime Minister, reassuring allies that Britain is serious while building on public perceptions of the threat as well as presenting defence spending as much as possible as a contribution to growth and jobs may be the way to go, even if it is not enough entirely to satisfy either Washington or the UK defence sector.

The war in Iran

Iran, rather than Ukraine, will remain the US priority in the run-up to the midterms.  For the UK, the impact of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz represents a direct national economic priority.  The UK and its European partners can do very little to change the reality on the ground, so pressure on the US is likely to have limited effect and the UK needs to avoid gratuitously annoying Trump.  That said, the UK has often had a closer sense of the Iranian regime than Washington (which has not had a diplomatic presence since 1979) so maybe Burnham has something to offer privately which can contribute to an off-ramp.

The Israel/Palestine conflict

The Government has been briefing that it is actively considering sanctions against the Israeli settlements on the West Bank.    As in other European countries, domestic considerations lie significantly behind these foreign policy positions: our own research suggests public dissatisfaction at the Government’s handling of the Middle East.   While action against Israel will be unwelcome in the United States (and of course with some at home), the UK is probably in the middle of a European/Western pack which is moving further away from Israel.   This may provide little comfort: if Burnham is hoping for a polite “agree to disagree” with Washington, it will be hard to sustain if and when sanctions appear to target Israeli trade beyond the West Bank settlements without winning too many new friends elsewhere.   If carried out – and domestically it may be difficult to backtrack – this policy is likely to require ongoing damage limitation.   The result of the forthcoming Israeli election may determine how big a problem this will be for the UK.

Relations with the EU

Relations with the EU may be seen to offer more opportunities with the EU/UK Summit, postponed following Kier Starmer’s resignation, likely in November.   The Icelandic referendum vote against even restarting negotiations with the EU will not put off the British Government while it should mean that Brussels is keener on a good news story from the richer end of Europe.   That said, membership is not on the cards any time soon and the EU is unlikely to show significant additional flexibility to the UK.  While the EU remains controversial in the UK, our polling suggests that public opinion is increasingly open to a closer relationship, though domestic electoral calculations are more complicated.  The challenge for Burnham will be whether to retain the positive but relatively cautious approach of his predecessor or go further and dare opponents to muster convincing arguments against.

The Chagos Islands

The Chagos Islands deal with Mauritius has not gone away, with the Government making clear that remains committed to proceed.  Reports that Mauritius will seek to exert pressure on Burnham at the General Assembly to deliver on the agreement the UK/United States Treaty which appears to make United States consent – which isn’t forthcoming – a condition.   While a General Assembly Resolution would have weight for some in Labour and beyond, a resolution cannot be accepted as binding.  The Prime Minister will presumably seek to keep the deal on the table without provoking Trump: kicking the can down the road here may not be the worst option.

The G20

Looking ahead, the UK assumes the G20 Presidency in 2027.  For any leader, this is an opportunity too good to miss.   In addition to the opportunities created for bilateral engagement with world leaders, the G20 will enable the UK to preside over discussions on key geopolitical challenges, but also to lead the agenda on issues such as climate and international development which offer potential for more “good news” initiatives.   Preparations in Government are already very much under way: this is too good an opportunity for even the most domestically-inclined modern Prime Minister to miss.   

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