28 Jul A Pragmatic But Uncomfortable Special Relationship
As Prime Minister Starmer and President Trump prepare to meet at President Trump’s golf club in Turnberry, Ayrshire later today, all eyes will be on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer can convince President Trump to join the charge to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and leverage important commitments around trade. It is a powerful reminder of the current state of the ‘special relationship’, once bound together by deep values alignment and commitment to the multilateral world order, now bound together by pragmatism, President Trump’s business interests, and UK soft power.
This is a notable shift in the UK-US relationship, which is reflected in public opinion as well, as Britons look to rapidly shift away from reliance on the US, even while recognising the need for pragmatic cooperation. Indeed, just 31% of Britons now say the United States is the UK’s closest ally, a dramatic fall from 54% in 2024. The European Union, meanwhile, has surged in perceived importance, with 29% now naming the EU as Britain’s closest partner. And when Britons are asked which of the UK-US and UK-EU relationships are more important, 59% of Britons say the EU, compared to just 29% who say the United States. For the first time in the post-Brexit era, Washington’s position as the UK’s go to partner looks shaky. This isn’t just a statistical blip, it underlines a sharp shift in how Britons view their alliances.
This is being driven in large part by a sharp drop in Britons’ trust in the United States. Only 38% of Britons now trust the United States to act responsibly on the world stage, down 15 percentage points in just one year. Indeed, more Britons now distrust (41%) than trust (38%) the United States to act responsibly in the world. For a country that built its post-war identity on an Atlanticist orientation, this is a remarkable shift, driven by unease with the United States’ domestic posturing, and its approach to global leadership.
If there is one figure defining these perceptions, it is President Trump. A third of Britons now see President Trump’s actions as one of the three biggest threats to UK national security, more than those who cite terrorism or the rise of China. Meanwhile, more than half of Britons believe his actions are harming the UK economy (53%), and 49% believe he is damaging UK-US relations. Trump’s volatile approach to global affairs, be it the wars in Ukraine or the Middle East, or his obsession with tariffs, mean that a relationship that was long seen to be of critical importance to UK security and prosperity, is now seen as a growing risk to it.
And yet, despite these concerns, the British public is not calling for a rupture. Indeed, only 28% of Britons believe the UK should move further away from the United States as a result of President Trump’s actions. Instead, 34% favour maintaining the current approach, while 33% believe the UK should move closer. This is despite the clear desire among the British public to shift back towards the EU, which Britons increasingly see as a critical and crucially, stable, international partner.
This speaks to the pragmatic approach Britons take to the UK-US relationship; they are nervous about the United States, profoundly uncomfortable with President Trump and desperately want a more stable United States back but recognise that the UK cannot simply walk away from its most powerful ally. Security, trade, intelligence sharing – these ties are too deep to sever. But neither is there enthusiasm for doubling down. What emerges instead is a cool-headed calculation: cooperate where necessary, but hedge against overreliance.
And this is the line Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to carefully walk – leveraging President Trump’s affinity for the UK to open doors to protect UK security and prosperity, while seeking alliances and partnerships elsewhere on critical issues like Ukraine, where the United States can no longer be trusted to lead. As Prime Minister Starmer meets President Trump today these thoughts will be weighing heavily on his mind – his ability to help secure a ceasefire in Gaza is of critical importance well beyond the UK, and an important opportunity for the UK to leverage the UK-US relationship for good.
The world will be watching but Prime Minister Keir Starmer can act with the (rare) confidence that the public is behind him, supporting a cautious but pragmatic approach to UK-US relationship. A relationship which no longer rests on blind faith or romantic nostalgia, at least not from the UK’s side. Instead, a relationship increasingly guided by calculation, contingency, and, above all, pragmatism. Today the UK has an opportunity to leverage it for good, let’s hope Prime Minister Starmer can use it.
